Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

The odds of a US recession in 2025 on prediction markets skyrocketed following President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff order.

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.

Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.

Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.

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